Europe was left in shock after the three-day meetings at the annual Munich Security Conference 2025 in Munich, Germany. The meetings began on February 14th, ironically on Valentine’s Day, but there was certainly no love in the air. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance gave a speech in which he stated:
"The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within—the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America."
This sent shockwaves through European nations, and afterward, French President Macron even went so far as to say that Europe had received an “electroshock.” Where does this leave Europe regarding the war in Ukraine? But also, where does the U.S. stand regarding NATO and Europe?
In connection with today’s meeting between the U.S. and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, I posed the following question to the cards: Describe the current situation between the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Europe (EU).
Before the reading, I chose four significators:
King of Hearts (USA)
King of Diamonds (Ukraine)
King of Spades (Russia)
King of Clubs (Europe – EU)
I set these four cards aside. Then, I drew five random cards and shuffled them together with the four kings. The spread turned out as follows:
Ukraine (King of Diamonds) faces Russia (King of Spades). Ukraine is severely pressured between the Six of Spades and the Nine of Spades. The King of Spades controls these two cards and has attempted to force Ukraine into submission (Six of Spades). This has resulted in the brutal war (Nine of Spades) we are witnessing. The King of Hearts (USA) is attempting to broker a peace agreement (Six of Clubs) between the two parties and bring them together (Eight of Hearts). King of Clubs (Europe) stands somewhat on the sidelines, fearing that Russia will not honour an agreement, and that Russian aggression could spread to other countries (Nine of Spades, Nine of Hearts). Is Russia’s deepest desire, in fact, to revert the geopolitical status to before the fall of the Soviet Union?
But who is the Queen of Spades? She belongs to the same suit as the King of Spades, and it seems she could play a significant role. It could almost only be China.
The peace process will gradually prove to be far more complex and challenging than Donald Trump likely expects (Five of Clubs at the bottom of the deck).
This raises the question: How will the peace efforts develop?
Keeping the previous significators in mind, I drew six random cards. Interestingly, three kings appeared again, along with the mysterious Queen of Spades. It is striking that the King of Hearts (USA) does not show up. In the upcoming dialogue or negotiations (Two of Diamonds), China (Queen of Spades) will apparently play a bigger role than currently expected. King of Clubs (Europe) supports King of Diamonds (Ukraine), but King of Clubs is weak—there are no other clubs present in the spread. Ukraine will very likely be forced to cede the territories desired by Russia (Four of Spades and Eight of Diamonds). At the bottom of the deck lies King of Spades (Russia).
The U.S. has made it clear that Europe must contribute much more, and a peacekeeping force consisting of European soldiers could be a possibility. However, this solution does not appear realistic. Perhaps China will step in to support Europe and offer to deploy Chinese peacekeeping troops in a security zone (Eight of Diamonds). In any case, the war seems likely to be halted or frozen (Four of Spades) and Europe seems, more or less, to be left alone without support from the USA.